1. Score Range Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
This year’s NEET paper (2026) was slightly easier and more balanced than the 2025 paper, featuring more direct NCERT-based questions in Biology and Chemistry. While 2025 featured heavy calculations and tricky statement-based questions, the 2026 exam maintained a high difficulty standard primarily in Physics, keeping time management a major factor for top scores.
Karnataka has witnessed a significant increase in the number of high-scoring candidates. The number of students scoring 550 marks and above has increased sharply, with the most remarkable growth seen in the 600–699 score range.
The increase is not limited to the top scorers alone. Every score band from 200 to 699 marks has recorded more candidates than last year, indicating an overall improvement in student performance across the state.
From a marks perspective, Karnataka students have performed considerably better than last year. Based on scores alone, one would expect the competition for MBBS seats to become tougher.
| Score Range | No of Candidates 2025 | No of Candidates 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 720-700 | 0 | 1 |
| 650-699 | 5 | 98 |
| 600-649 | 95 | 471 |
| 550-599 | 581 | 1362 |
| 500-549 | 2289 | 3061 |
| 450-499 | 4376 | 4928 |
| 400-449 | 6038 | 6605 |
| 350-399 | 6983 | 8650 |
| 300-349 | 8379 | 10209 |
| 250-299 | 10314 | 11937 |
| 200-249 | 13135 | 14435 |
| 150-199 | 17999 | 7413 |
2. AIR Distribution Comparison
Although Karnataka candidates have scored better, the number of candidates falling within major All India Rank (AIR) brackets has remained almost unchanged. Nearly every AIR range shows only a marginal decline of around 5–10%, while the top AIR brackets remain almost identical to 2025.
The higher scores observed in Karnataka have largely been offset by improved performance across the country. Therefore, AIR cutoffs are unlikely to witness dramatic changes based solely on the score distribution.
| AIR Range | No of Candidates 2025 | No of Candidates 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 5000 | 325 | 299 |
| 5001-20000 | 755 | 751 |
| 20001-50000 | 1716 | 1528 |
| 50001-75000 | 1487 | 1459 |
| 75001-100000 | 1579 | 1518 |
| 100001-130000 | 2031 | 1902 |
| 130001-200000 | 4775 | 4440 |
| 200001-300000 | 6630 | 6250 |
| 300001-450000 | 9784 | 8932 |
| 450001-500000 | 3232 | 2834 |
3. Quota & Category Cutoffs Analysis
For the same 2025 Round 2 closing AIR, the corresponding Karnataka State Rank is consistently better (lower) in 2026 across every quota and category. For major State Quota categories such as GM, 1G, 2AG, 2BG, 3AG and 3BG, the improvement is approximately 200–300 Karnataka State Ranks.
Management Quota categories such as GMP and OPMQ show an even larger improvement, while SCG and STG categories also record a noticeable gain in Karnataka State Rank. Candidates holding the same AIR in 2026 are expected to receive a better Karnataka State Rank than candidates with the same AIR in 2025. Hence, comparing only Karnataka State Rank with last year’s cutoffs may lead to incorrect conclusions.
| Quota | Category | R2 AIR Cutoff Rank | R2 AIR Cutoff Score | 2025 SR Cutoff Rank | 2026 Cutoff Rank for Exact AIR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MQ | GMP-PU | 479986 | 287 | 30991 | 28790 |
| MQ | GMP | 129260 | 445 | 7840 | 7414 |
| OPMQ | GN-PU | 411057 | 312 | 26592 | 24757 |
| OPMQ | GN | 109892 | 458 | 6564 | 6180 |
| SQ | 1G | 99491 | 465 | 5831 | 5538 |
| SQ | 2AG | 92825 | 469 | 5411 | 5140 |
| SQ | 2BG | 81864 | 477 | 4721 | 4447 |
| SQ | 3AG | 73735 | 483 | 4203 | 3966 |
| SQ | 3BG | 78231 | 479 | 4489 | 4227 |
| SQ | GM | 73808 | 483 | 4208 | 3971 |
| SQ | SCG | 228284 | 391 | 14532 | 13640 |
| SQ | STG | 229487 | 390 | 14621 | 13716 |
4. AIR Above Thresholds
When last year’s cutoff AIRs are analysed, the number of Karnataka candidates above those AIRs has reduced slightly in 2026. For example, the GM Round 2 cutoff AIR in 2025 was 73,808. Karnataka had 4,283 candidates above approximately 75,000 AIR in 2025, compared to 4,037 candidates in 2026—a reduction of 246 candidates.
A similar trend is observed across other AIR brackets, indicating that slightly fewer Karnataka candidates occupy the higher AIR positions compared to last year. This improvement explains why Karnataka State Ranks have shifted upwards (better ranks) for the same AIR. However, this alone does not guarantee that AIR cutoffs will increase by the same margin, as actual counselling depends on seat matrix, candidate preferences, participation, and round-wise movement.
| AIR Above | No of Candidates 2025 | No of Candidates 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 5000 | 325 | 299 |
| 20000 | 1080 | 1050 |
| 50000 | 2796 | 2578 |
| 75000 | 4283 | 4037 |
| 100000 | 5862 | 5555 |
| 130000 | 7893 | 7457 |
| 200000 | 12668 | 11897 |
| 300000 | 19298 | 18147 |
| 450000 | 29082 | 27079 |
| 500000 | 32314 | 29913 |
Overall Prediction for Karnataka MBBS Counselling 2026
- Competition will remain very similar to 2025, with only minor shifts expected in most categories.
- Although Karnataka candidates have scored significantly higher, similar improvements across India have kept the AIR distribution largely stable.
- Karnataka State Ranks are expected to improve by roughly 200–300 positions for most State Quota categories at the same AIR.
- AIR cutoffs are expected to move only slightly compared to 2025. Large jumps in closing AIR are unlikely unless there is a significant increase in MBBS seats or major changes in counselling preferences.
- Candidates should rely primarily on AIR-based college predictions rather than comparing only Karnataka State Ranks with previous years.
- Overall, 2025 Round 2 cutoffs remain an excellent benchmark for 2026 counselling, with only small adjustments required for most categories. Candidates whose AIR is close to last year’s cutoff should continue to include those colleges in their preference list rather than assuming a drastic increase or decrease in cutoffs.